Archive for August, 2010

Are we richer if we make perceived convenience the priority?

Tuesday, August 17th, 2010

Update: I received some thoughtful questions and comments. I answer them at the end.

Meredith Angwin and Rod Adams posted discussions about those who suggest that we all need to reduce waste in our lives ignore the world’s poor, who have very little energy. We all agree—InterAcademy Council makes this their first point in Lighting the Way: Toward a Sustainable Energy Future. This is also the first point in my policy presentations. However, I objected to some of what I heard implied: because at low levels of energy use, more energy is associated with longer, healthier lives, the same correlation holds at high levels (indeed, in the US I have read concerns that life expectancy will begin to drop as we use our muscles even less). And that we have little obligation to consider the implications of our choices.

Meredith responded thoughtfully in Prosperity for Rich Folks, advocating for our right to waste, because these choices may make our lives easier. It is my sense that most Americans agree with Meredith, that it is OK to put our perceived convenience ahead of all our considerations.

To be clear, there is much on which we agree beyond our strong support for nuclear power. Aging infrastructure needs to be replaced, and states/countries that ignore energy drive energy production or/and manufacturing elsewhere. Much can be accomplished by paying attention to efficiency. The point of disagreement is whether we are better off, as individuals or a society, if we place an emphasis on smaller cars, etc, and turning stuff off, opting for alternatives to driving and flying, etc.

It is normal for people to begin with unstated assumptions and then agree or disagree without checking those assumptions. Let me check here: many including Meredith and Rod believe essentially that there is enough energy for everyone, though making good choices is important. Others believe that we will run out of energy soon, and still others believe that even if there is enough energy, living more simply helps us or/and the universe. Yes/no?

I would not have begun this discussion before 1995 (when I began paying attention to energy and climate change) with a strong preference for any of those assumptions. I did not replace my car when it broke in 1991 and have lived almost two decades without a car for a variety of reasons, but concern for the environment only became important later. Much more important to me initially were cost, health, and reducing overscheduling. Over time, other advantages emerged, such as the sheer pleasure of being on a bicycle (I had always walked a lot). I did not know then, and do not know now, how many people are like me, happier without a car, or with reduced access through a carshare program, but I doubt that I am unique.

Certainly I don’t feel deprived. Cyclists live longer lives, and quite possibly healthier lives, even including the cohort with the highest death rate, very young males. We don’t have to spend so many hours working to support and maintain a 1+ ton monster. And I never enjoyed driving in the way I enjoy cycling. I have reduced fossil fuel use in a number of other ways in my life, and don’t feel deprived. I suspect that a number of us with adequate access to energy can buy better, use less, and feel as or more satisfied. It is easier to continue doing whatever we have been doing, but that doesn’t necessarily make us happier.

Happy cyclist
Happy cyclist

road rage
Giving up the car and producing endorphins is also good.

We begin with assumptions about whether there is enough energy, but how well do these gibe with analyses coming from science and policy experts re climate change? Some believe that there is enough energy, eg, if we replace almost all fossil fuel electricity with nuclear, and replace fossil fuels used for heating (natural gas, fuel oil, propane) with nuclear electricity, and go to nuclear-powered electric cars. Therefore, I hear, the use of energy is OK (this line of argument generally ignores flying). If policy experts reached this same conclusion, then I would not have major objections to those who waste (there are those that do, for a variety of reasons). Unfortunately, I have seen no major report out of the peer-review community that shows us eliminating fossil fuel use in electricity by 2050, even without electrifying all cars. Even if biofuels become greenhouse gas (GHG) neutral, we will be allocating much of ever-more precious land and water to its cultivation, and are likely to create other problems.

There may be enough energy for 2050, in the sense that policy experts assume that people will farm too much to make biomass for fuel and power, and burn too much fossil fuel (and release too much GHG) rather than make meaningful personal reductions. While some worry about peak oil, those in policy see the problem more that we will run out of atmosphere. John Holdren, science adviser to Obama, is among these:

We are running out of environment, in the sense of the capacity of the atmosphere and waters and biota of the Earth to absorb, without intolerable consequences, the impacts of mobilizing energy in the quantities and in the ways characterizing today’s energy use and that which is ahead in the “business as usual” future.

There is scientific consensus that we produce too much greenhouse gas, and that massive reductions in GHG emissions are needed. So even if we with more than enough energy did live better, longer, healthier lives, there is more to consider—sometimes it is better for us to host a party, other times to replace the roof, if we can imagine addressing GHG as an important capital expenditure. The recommendation of experts cluster around 50 – 80% reduction in GHG emissions from 2004 levels to 2050, requiring a per capita reduction of perhaps 65 – 85%, and higher than that in the developed world, and even then there will be more problems than we would like. These would affect us as well as the poor. On the one hand, scientists studying climate change would prefer an immediate disappearance of GHG emissions, and on the other, policy experts for the most part don’t see a 50 – 80% reduction as achievable, at least not easily. Even if successful, climate change will be destructive, but lack of success has a set of very scary predictions associated with it, such as large areas on every continent becoming dustbowl (pdf) this century.

Nobel Prize winner in economics, George Akerlof spoke at a climate change symposium in Berkeley, saying that we ask the wrong questions when we question whether it is convenient to change our behavior, convenient to pay a higher cost to lower GHG emissions. We don’t walk into someone’s house, eat their dinner, and then ask whether it is convenient to stop eating their dinner. Since we emit more than our share of emissions, the question shouldn’t be whether it is convenient to stop emitting someone else’s share.

The ethical dimension may be simple to Professor Akerlof, but dealing with ourselves and others can be tricky. And painful. With health care, we’d love to say yes to everyone. Following your bliss? Another yes to everyone. Unfortunately, there is not enough money to treat every medical condition, and there is not enough time to follow every path. Life requires choices, and we do not all get all we want. We prioritize, clarify how important is our own convenience, and our obligations.

No matter what people’s underlying assumption (there is more than enough, there is not enough), almost everyone has the same response to this discussion, “Don’t guilt trip me.” Guilt has not been a strong motivator for me. Some of us are motivated by the desire to understand what is right and act on that understanding. It would be nice if we lived in a world where the cost of our behavior was reflected in the price, so decisions would be easier to make, and that would be a blessing. Unfortunately, it is only as we become willing to pay attention as individuals that society will accommodate that understanding to increase the price of behavior destructive to society. Making good choices around climate change will be easier once we have a critical mass of us consider behavior change.

Most of us feel richer if we feel good about what we do for others. Studies even show that we are often happier giving someone else money than receiving the same amount. Our choices can be gifts to ourselves and others of a world more beautiful and nurturing, not a means of depriving ourselves. If we see our behavior this way, we will likely find other gifts in the choices we make.

Update: Paraphrased comments and questions

Q: Isn’t it true that technology change will yield greater GHG reductions per unit effort?

A: That’s my assumption. If 100 people could choose to put work into changing their behavior and that of others, or put the same work into promoting nuclear power, or mandating higher fuel economy, the latter is likely to result in greater GHG emissions. This is even more true if the people involved would be seen by the public as not the same old same old, but people who changed their mind, and if the nuclear work is in places like California, where new nuclear power plants are not permitted, rather than Georgia, where construction has already begun on a Gen III+ plant.

However, technology change is not sufficient. Technology in the absence of a cost for GHG even more so.

Q: Is it more important in your mind to pay attention to the inner experience?

A: First, I am clear in my mind that it is important to provide increased energy to many.

Absolutely not. I chose to go carless for a variety of reasons, and chose to avoid flying once for the environment. After that experiment, I decided that I preferred the train to flying, and so now avoid flying both for my own pleasure and the environment.

If I were to choose what is important for your soul, in the absence of climate change there would be a number of items much higher on my list than some version of living simply. With climate change, there is an important goal, to lower GHG emissions. Some people can make a small number of small changes in one day and dramatically lower GHG emissions with no sense of loss. Others need to add attentiveness to behavior for a while but will also experience no sense of loss. For some, the choices may even work better. Others may want to add GHG cost to the decision-making process—one person asked me about the GHG emissions in reaching vacation spots A and B. I provided that information, and assume that it was just part of the decision-making. A relatively small number of people, I suspect, live lives so perfect that all changes will lead to a sense of privation. Based on what people said when reducing their electricity use 10% in CA in response to the electricity crisis (I didn’t really do much, all I did was…) people in the energy-rich world could reduce GHG emissions at least 10% over the next year fairly easily.

That said, we don’t easily make choices that are good for us. I heard this story secondhand from the days when people had one TV, and TV repair took a week: people picking up the TV reported themselves as happier, the family was getting along better and talking more, and yet always picked up the TV. Another moral of the story is that we cannot expect voluntary behavior change to replace good political and societal choices.

Q: Are you really not talking about living without electricity, etc?

A: If people want to go live in a cave, fine. I use electricity and heat my house and cook and vacation. I am not advocating that anyone live without these, rather that we live with a little more intention and attention. Also, to me the question is climate change and the answer is lower GHG emissions. If you want to sew your own clothes, you’ll enjoy it and I definitely want to see and admire your achievements, but if it doesn’t reduce GHG emissions, it’s not part of the answer to climate change.

Q: What is simple living? I hear so many versions, and so many sound awful.

A: I don’t believe that I use this phrase often. For me simple living is making choices that free me and center me—making fewer, more important choices. This meaning is not universal.

Akerlof’s ethics pose a challenge to us. However, we can get there in a very different manner. Suppose we have always eaten whatever we want, whenever we want. Now for a year, we opt to change our behavior, and see how we feel at the end of the year. We may find that going for walks helps deal with anxiety that can lead to overeating, and has other benefits. We may find that we like ourselves better. We may find that walking becomes easier over time, as we walk more and eat less. We may find that the entire year has been a terrible experience, and we will never, ever do this again. Note: those of us who eat considerably more than we need really do get that this solution is for us, not for those who are starving, or who have close to normal weights.

Similarly, we could set a goal of reducing our GHG emissions 10% this year, and see how we feel at the end of the year. Take the train one way instead of flying. Drive less. Use less energy in the house. It probably won’t take much work, but you do need an accurate GHG scale. If I set a goal to reduce my GHG emissions 10% this year, and act on it, how will I feel during the year, how will I feel after 12 months? These are open-ended question; answers will vary. For many, the answers will include greater pleasure in some new choices compared to previous ones, and feeling better about ourselves, happier with who we are. Others will hate some or all of it. Success at the end of the year could lead to a new set point, or it could lead to a new question for the following year. Most important is a willingness to try this once.

I never experimented when I resented the experiment. The time I chose to take the train from the west to the east coast instead of flying, I felt an obligation to try, I was curious about how I would react, and I felt free to hate the experience and take the train no more. I used the time on the train to ask others why they took the train. I was surprised that I preferred the train over flying: being rested when I arrived rather than always rushing. Just sitting and looking at the US.

Q: What makes behavior change important, given that we are going to accomplish so little?

A: There are a number of reasons.

Economists have a model of the rational actor, but people make rational decisions better when they are changing their behavior. People who think about climate change and how they could respond are more likely to buy more efficient bulbs, appliances, etc.

Also consider society’s experience with smoking. The number of smokers and our exposure to secondhand smoke decreased as public health warnings, legislation, and behavior change among some in the public (from not smoking themselves to insisting that the spouse not smoke near the kids) worked together over a number of decades.

Perhaps most important: even though a good share of the public knows climate change is crucial to address last week, too few of us care enough to vote or work on it, or reconsider old ways of thinking on policy issues. Many of us can only acknowledge the dangers from climate change if we have found a way to begin to address it. Most people know that buying green products doesn’t do much, but that changing behavior can. Real numbers, real progress over time, for enough people, and more become willing to make climate change a priority.

Interestingly, it is my sense that those who are strongest advocates of changing behavior would benefit more from learning why nuclear power is an attractive solution and advocating for it. Those who might benefit most from changing behavior are those who don’t consider it/fear it. As more of us face our fears, society will begin to face its fears about addressing climate change.

CO2 and Clownfish

Tuesday, August 17th, 2010

A number of studies show that increasing CO2 is an important environmental change for plants. Now Ocean acidification impairs olfactory discrimination and homing ability of a marine fish (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences) studied the effect of ocean acidification on clownfish larva:

The persistence of most coastal marine species depends on larvae finding suitable adult habitat at the end of an offshore dispersive stage that can last weeks or months. We tested the effects that ocean acidification from elevated levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) could have on the ability of larvae to detect olfactory cues from adult habitats. Larval clownfish reared in control seawater (pH 8.15) discriminated between a range of cues that could help them locate reef habitat and suitable settlement sites. This discriminatory ability was disrupted when larvae were reared in conditions simulating CO2-induced ocean acidification. Larvae became strongly attracted to olfactory stimuli they normally avoided when reared at levels of ocean pH that could occur ca. 2100 (pH 7.8) and they no longer responded to any olfactory cues when reared at pH levels (pH 7.6) that might be attained later next century on a business-as-usual carbon-dioxide emissions trajectory. If acidification continues unabated, the impairment of sensory ability will reduce population sustainability of many marine species, with potentially profound consequences for marine diversity.

Nature Conservancy An important adaptation to climate change is to minimize other dangers to species.

Some recent updates

Monday, August 9th, 2010

Friends Energy Project is now updated to the 21st century. I hope to change news and events at least once every 2 weeks, possibly more often. Is there anything you would like to see added?

The revised post on discernment has received comments, but none online. Do you have anything to say online or off?

Differences Among Friends on Energy

Wednesday, August 4th, 2010

A new upload, you can discuss it.

Differences Among Friends on Energy: Friendly and UnFriendly responses to Friends Energy Project