Climate Change Worst Case Scenarios: Not Worst Enough

from a AAAS blog post: Climate Change Worst Case Scenarios: Not Worst Enough

• We’re increasing greenhouses gases 3 x faster than the worst case prediction. During the 1990s, GHG emissions were increasing 0.9%/year. From 2000-2007, the increase averaged 3.5%/year. This is mostly due to economic growth, mostly in China. However, new coal plants are being built in the EU (think Germany) and US, and China’s per capita GHG emissions are still lower than in the EU.

world greenhouse gas emissions
world greenhouse gas emissions—Note increase from 2000 to 2004 is equal to that from 1990 to 2000.

Changing US emissions
Changing US emissions

Even as sea level stopped rising from thermal expansion (think mercury in a thermometer), sea level increase between 1993 and 2008 was twice as rapid as in the 1960s, due to more glacier and ice sheet melt.

From another post, Fisheries Worldwide Threatened by Climate Change:

Many commercial fish stocks will likely shift their distributions dramatically as species respond to changes in ocean climate over the next 4 decades… The changing ranges could mean major disruptions to fisheries, with some nations seeing major boosts in yields and other countries–predominantly in the tropics–being the losers. Dozens of species that are unable to adapt will likely go extinct…

The Canadian fishing industry will likewise benefit at the expense of their counterparts in the United States, where cod populations may fall by 50% by 2050. Overall, climate change may cause the continental United States to lose more than 15% of its potential catch by 2050.

Indonesia will also lose out, Norway will benefit, polar species are likely to go extinct.

On the other hand, better marine management has led to healthier Hawaiian coral, and a return to higher haddock stocks in the northeastern US.

Soy is replacing rainforest, and if the US actually does produce 57 billion liters of corn-based ethanol in 2022, Brazil will plant up to a million more acres of soy, producing GHG emissions 130-650 times as much as was saved with the ethanol.

disappearing rain forest
disappearing rain forest

4 Responses to “Climate Change Worst Case Scenarios: Not Worst Enough”

  1. One of the worst effect of climate change will be climate refugees and the worst of these will be from Bangladesh and into India.

    Sorry, but we will not allow this influx to take place into India and change our religious and cultural factor.

    Read more at :

  2. Karen Street says:

    Thank you for your comment.

    It’s because of tensions such as you write about that reports such as The Age of Consequences warn of major conflicts this century.

  3. Anonymous says:

    where is this rainforest?

  4. Karen Street says:

    I believe the rainforest is in Brazil, as that is the subject of the article on the Science blog.