Polar bear extinct in US by mid-century

From USGS, executive summary:

Projected changes in future sea ice conditions, if realized, will result in loss of approximately 2/3 of the world’s current polar bear population by the mid 21st century. Because the observed trajectory of Arctic sea ice decline appears to be underestimated by currently available models, this assessment of future polar bear status may be conservative….Ultimately, we projected a 42% loss of optimal polar bear habitat during summer in the polar basin by mid century….In the archipelagic ecoregion [of the Canadian Arctic], polar bears could occur through the end of the century, but in smaller numbers than now….Sea ice conditions would have to be substantially better than even the most conservative [global circulation models] projections to result in qualitatively different outcomes for polar bears in any of the ecoregions.

Alaskan polar bear cubs
Alaskan polar bear cubs

This entry was posted on Saturday, September 8th, 2007 at 10:54 am and is filed under General. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

3 Responses to “Polar bear extinct in US by mid-century”

  1. Ceri Reid says:
    12/2/2007 at 9:41 am

    Your headline is contradicted by the USGS summary. Really, it’s ‘Polar bear population reduced by mid-century’. Unless there’s other content o the USGS report that you haven’t blogged.
    And, oh, I get sick and tired of the cuddly polar bear cub pictures. A polar bear will rip your face off without a second thought. (I’m not anti-polar bears, or anything – but we don’t need to justify preserving biodiversity based on how cuddly it is).

  2. Karen Street says:
    12/2/2007 at 4:08 pm

    Ceri, thanks for your comment. One reason I posted this is because polar bears, which are bears, and mean, are an icon for cute (and we’re programmed to respond to cute), and an icon for beings that exist away from humans. More than one person has told me that imminent polar bear extinction makes climate change real in a way that other markers have not. Thank you for reminding us that cute is not always cute, and that cute should not be the most important criterion for preserving biodiversity. We’re sending life forms from bacteria to our cousin primates into extinction; few are cute, but most are important.

    Polar bears now live in:

    • Wrangell Island and western Alaska
    • Northern Alaska
    • Canadian Arctic archipelago
    • Greenland
    • Svalbard-Franz Josef Land (archipelago in far north of Russia)
    • North-Central Siberia

    The Wikipedia list helped, as I don’t need to know much geography. USGS in its reports ignores minor points such as country, etc. The Wikipedia site also has a map showing projected mid-century loss in habitat.

    From USGS, Executive Summary:

    16. Based on a first-generation Bayesian Network model incorporating a range of factors affecting polar bears, we forecasted extirpation of polar bear populations in the seasonal sea ice and the polar basin divergent ecoregions [north coast of Alaska and the Western Arctic coast in Canada] by 45 years from present.

    17. We forecasted extirpation of polar bear populations in the polar basin convergent ecoregion [northern shores of the Canadian islands and down the eastern side of Greenland] by 75 years from present. In the archipelagic ecoregion, polar bears could occur through the end of the century, but in smaller numbers than now.

    18. Sea ice conditions would have to be substantially better than even the most conservative GCM projections to result in qualitatively different outcomes for polar bears in any of the ecoregions.

    Thanks to Nature blog for the translation into English. It also sends us to an animation that shows us ice shifts in the Arctic over the years.

  3. Anonymous says:
    9/22/2008 at 5:07 pm

    People should take care of there enviroment and the things in it.These polar bears are in need we should help them. People should get there heads out of their butts and care about people and animals exspecially these polar bears!