4 Degrees and Beyond

Nature’s blog, Climate Feedback, has been covering the conference, 4 Degrees and Beyond. Slides and audio have been posted.

How soon is it coming?
As early as 2060, depending on strength of feedbacks.

To flee the sea, or not to flee?
The questions on ice sheet dynamics have still not been answered, so there is no agreed upon answer.

Adaption to what?

Audio and slides from the conference.
Schnellnhuber talks about the increase in concern with temperature increase since 2001:
burning embers diagram
burning embers diagram: 2°C increase no longer considered safe. From Proceedings of the National Academy’s Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “reasons for concern”. (pdf)

While we don’t know sea level rise in the 21st century, in the long run, sea level was 50 m higher at atmospheric CO2 level of 2x prehistoric (note: we’re adding greenhouse gases in addition to carbon dioxide). The ocean will have oxygen holes (large areas of oxygen depletion). Key message: “Temperature rises above 2°C […] are likely to cause major societal and environmental disruptions through the rest of the century and beyond.“

To be continued

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